The US Surgeon General has stated that previous death projections were highly exaggerated.


Misleading. He said they could be lower than predicted if social distancing was maintained.


A video on Instagram claims that the US Surgeon General, Dr Jerome Adams, said that death projections for COVID-19 were exaggerated.

This is misleading. What he did say, during an interview with Good Morning America, is that he does believe the number of deaths could be lower than initial predictions, but only “as long as we can continue to do our part for 30 days”, referring to federal social distancing guidelines. This is not the same as the predictions being exaggerated.

The video also claims that Dr Adams has stated that predictive models, particularly those funded by Bill Gates, have been “dumped” by the US Government in favour of “the current data” and that predictions of the number of deaths were “inflated”. To support these claims, the speaker displays within the video an article published in Fort Russ that details his argument. The article misrepresents comments made by the Surgeon General during an interview on Sirius XM radio with Breitbart News Daily. Dr Adams made it clear in this original interview that while the US approach is now “data driven” and “not as reliant on these models” it is “important to know that models are projections when you don’t have data”, as was the case at the beginning of the pandemic. He does not say, as the speaker in the video suggests, that models are no longer being used, and no mention is made of Bill Gates.

The US Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) maintains that ‘forecasting COVID-19 deaths in the US is critical’ and ‘will help inform public health decision-making by projecting the likely impact in coming weeks’. The official US government webpage dedicated to coronavirus advice directs people to the CDC website. This proves that the claim made in the video that “the CDC has been lying” and was “outvoted” by the US Government is false, as the groups are evidently working together.

Other conspiracy theories voiced by the speaker in the Instagram video include the claim that the authorities are running a fear campaign to force mandatory vaccination with the ultimate aim of depopulation. As we have previously reported this is false. He goes as far as suggesting that reports of black and impoverished communities being disproportionately affected by the virus were created to increase government investment for vaccines.

Furthermore, the speaker is critical of the 1986 Childhood Vaccine Injury Act, which he says meant “you could put anything in a vaccine and not be sued for it”. The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) website makes it clear that rigorous processes are in place for vaccine regulation and approval. This involves monitoring vaccine samples and numerous ‘quality control tests’.

Towards the end of the video he states that “the mainstream media have lied so much and doctors were getting paid to go along with it” while also linking the ID2020 programme to motives of “total control” and “mass surveillance”. There is no proof to substantiate either of these claims, and we have previously written about disinformation surrounding ID2020 as well as Bill Gates conspiracies.


US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC): COVID-19 Forecasts

US Government: Coronavirus website

Good Morning America (GMA): US Surgeon General details latest coronavirus numbersa

US Food and Drug Administration (FDA): Vaccine Product Approval Process

Breitbart News Daily: Interview with Dr Jerome Adams, Surgeon General

Origins of Claim


“Well well, it seems that Mr Bill Gates along with many different funders have now been dumped officially, officially and officially. The United States government has now, according to the Surgeon General, decided to dump, get rid of the model that they were going to use which was Bill Gates, which is everybody is going to get vaccinated. Well, according to the Surgeon General the numbers have been inflated, exaggerated or should I say not true as it pertains to the deaths of the people and it shows that in the majority of states people have been doing exactly what they need to do and the numbers of deaths have been dwindling, dwindling, dwindling and they have not been dying anywhere near as fast as the numbers have been reported or should I say the projections. So the Surgeon General said that the projections were highly exaggerated but the actual data that we are currently now working with shows the true numbers and it shows that these are looking so good to where we more than likely are going to open up states sooner than we thought.”